Understanding early HIV-1 rebound dynamics following antiretroviral therapy interruption: The importance of effector cell expansion.

Most people living with HIV-1 experience rapid viral rebound once antiretroviral therapy is interrupted; however, a small fraction remain in viral remission for an extended duration. Understanding the factors that determine whether viral rebound is likely after treatment interruption can enable the development of optimal treatment regimens and therapeutic interventions to potentially achieve a functional cure for HIV-1. We built upon the theoretical framework proposed by Conway and Perelson to construct dynamic models of virus-immune interactions to study factors that influence viral rebound dynamics. We evaluated these models using viral load data from 24 individuals following antiretroviral therapy interruption. The best-performing model accurately captures the heterogeneity of viral dynamics and highlights the importance of the effector cell expansion rate. Our results show that post-treatment controllers and non-controllers can be distinguished based on the effector cell expansion rate in our models. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the potential of using dynamic models incorporating an effector cell response to understand early viral rebound dynamics post-antiretroviral therapy interruption.

Understanding stoichiometric constraints on growth using resource use efficiency imbalances.

Growth is a function of the net accrual of resources by an organism. Energy and elemental contents of organisms are dynamically linked through their uptake and allocation to biomass production, yet we lack a full understanding of how these dynamics regulate growth rate. Here, we develop a multivariate imbalance framework, the growth efficiency hypothesis, linking organismal resource contents to growth and metabolic use efficiencies, and demonstrate its effectiveness in predicting consumer growth rates under elemental and food quantity limitation. The relative proportions of carbon (%C), nitrogen (%N), phosphorus (%P), and adenosine triphosphate (%ATP) in consumers differed markedly across resource limitation treatments. Differences in their resource composition were linked to systematic changes in stoichiometric use efficiencies, which served to maintain relatively consistent relationships between elemental and ATP content in consumer tissues and optimize biomass production. Overall, these adjustments were quantitatively linked to growth, enabling highly accurate predictions of consumer growth rates.

Modeling the emergence of viral resistance for SARS-CoV-2 during treatment with an anti-spike monoclonal antibody.

To mitigate the loss of lives during the COVID-19 pandemic, emergency use authorization was given to several anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients with a high risk of progressing to severe disease. Monoclonal antibodies used to treat SARS-CoV-2 target the spike protein of the virus and block its ability to enter and infect target cells. Monoclonal antibody therapy can thus accelerate the decline in viral load and lower hospitalization rates among high-risk patients with variants susceptible to mAb therapy. However, viral resistance has been observed, in some cases leading to a transient viral rebound that can be as large as 3-4 orders of magnitude. As mAbs represent a proven treatment choice for SARS-CoV-2 and other viral infections, evaluation of treatment-emergent mAb resistance can help uncover underlying pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and may also help in the development of the next generation of mAb therapies. Although resistance can be expected, the large rebounds observed are much more difficult to explain. We hypothesize replenishment of target cells is necessary to generate the high transient viral rebound. Thus, we formulated two models with different mechanisms for target cell replenishment (homeostatic proliferation and return from an innate immune response antiviral state) and fit them to data from persons with SARS-CoV-2 treated with a mAb. We showed that both models can explain the emergence of resistant virus associated with high transient viral rebounds. We found that variations in the target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters have a strong impact on the magnitude or observability of the viral rebound associated with the emergence of resistant virus. Both variations in target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters may explain why only some individuals develop observable transient resistant viral rebound. Our study highlights the conditions that can lead to resistance and subsequent viral rebound in mAb treatments during acute infection.

Modeling the emergence of viral resistance for SARS-CoV-2 during treatment with an anti-spike monoclonal antibody.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to over 760 million cases and 6.9 million deaths worldwide. To mitigate the loss of lives, emergency use authorization was given to several anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients with a high risk of progressing to severe disease. Monoclonal antibodies used to treat SARS-CoV-2 target the spike protein of the virus and block its ability to enter and infect target cells. Monoclonal antibody therapy can thus accelerate the decline in viral load and lower hospitalization rates among high-risk patients with susceptible variants. However, viral resistance has been observed, in some cases leading to a transient viral rebound that can be as large as 3-4 orders of magnitude. As mAbs represent a proven treatment choice for SARS-CoV-2 and other viral infections, evaluation of treatment-emergent mAb resistance can help uncover underlying pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and may also help in the development of the next generation of mAb therapies. Although resistance can be expected, the large rebounds observed are much more difficult to explain. We hypothesize replenishment of target cells is necessary to generate the high transient viral rebound. Thus, we formulated two models with different mechanisms for target cell replenishment (homeostatic proliferation and return from an innate immune response anti-viral state) and fit them to data from persons with SARS-CoV-2 treated with a mAb. We showed that both models can explain the emergence of resistant virus associated with high transient viral rebounds. We found that variations in the target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters have a strong impact on the magnitude or observability of the viral rebound associated with the emergence of resistant virus. Both variations in target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters may explain why only some individuals develop observable transient resistant viral rebound. Our study highlights the conditions that can lead to resistance and subsequent viral rebound in mAb treatments during acute infection.

Semi-infectious particles contribute substantially to influenza virus within-host dynamics when infection is dominated by spatial structure.

Influenza is an ribonucleic acid virus with a genome that comprises eight segments. Experiments show that the vast majority of virions fail to express one or more gene segments and thus cannot cause a productive infection on their own. These particles, called semi-infectious particles (SIPs), can induce virion production through complementation when multiple SIPs are present in an infected cell. Previous within-host influenza models did not explicitly consider SIPs and largely ignore the potential effects of coinfection during virus infection. Here, we constructed and analyzed two distinct models explicitly keeping track of SIPs and coinfection: one without spatial structure and the other implicitly considering spatial structure. While the model without spatial structure fails to reproduce key aspects of within-host influenza virus dynamics, we found that the model implicitly considering the spatial structure of the infection process makes predictions that are consistent with biological observations, highlighting the crucial role that spatial structure plays during an influenza infection. This model predicts two phases of viral growth prior to the viral peak: a first phase driven by fully infectious particles at the initiation of infection followed by a second phase largely driven by coinfections of fully infectious particles and SIPs. Fitting this model to two sets of data, we show that SIPs can contribute substantially to viral load during infection. Overall, the model provides a new interpretation of the in vivo exponential viral growth observed in experiments and a mechanistic explanation for why the production of large numbers of SIPs does not strongly impede viral growth. Being simple and predictive, our model framework serves as a useful tool to understand coinfection dynamics in spatially structured acute viral infections.

An explanation for SARS-CoV-2 rebound after Paxlovid treatment.

In a fraction of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals treated with the oral antiviral Paxlovid, the virus rebounds following treatment. The mechanism driving rebound is not understood. Here, we show that viral dynamic models based on the hypothesis that Paxlovid treatment near the time of symptom onset halts the depletion of target cells, but may not fully eliminate the virus, which can lead to viral rebound. We also show that the occurrence of viral rebound is sensitive to model parameters, and the time treatment is initiated, which may explain why only a fraction of individuals develop viral rebound. Finally, the models are used to test the therapeutic effects of two alternative treatment schemes. These findings also provide a possible explanation for rebounds following other antiviral treatments for SARS-CoV-2.

Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks.

Wastewater surveillance has proved to be a valuable tool to track the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most studies using wastewater surveillance data revolve around establishing correlations and lead time relative to reported case data. In this perspective, we advocate for the integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic within-host and between-host models to better understand, monitor, and predict viral disease outbreaks. Dynamic models overcome emblematic difficulties of using wastewater surveillance data such as establishing the temporal viral shedding profile. Complementarily, wastewater surveillance data bypasses the issues of time lag and underreporting in clinical case report data, thus enhancing the utility and applicability of dynamic models. The integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic models can enhance real-time tracking and prevalence estimation, forecast viral transmission and intervention effectiveness, and most importantly, provide a mechanistic understanding of infectious disease dynamics and the driving factors. Dynamic modeling of wastewater surveillance data will advance the development of a predictive and responsive monitoring system to improve pandemic preparedness and population health.

Prolonged viral shedding from noninfectious individuals confounds wastewater-based epidemiology.

Wastewater surveillance has been widely used to track and estimate SARS-CoV-2 incidence. While both infectious and recovered individuals shed virus into wastewater, epidemiological inferences using wastewater often only consider the viral contribution from the former group. Yet, the persistent shedding in the latter group could confound wastewater-based epidemiological inference, especially during the late stage of an outbreak when the recovered population outnumbers the infectious population. To determine the impact of recovered individuals' viral shedding on the utility of wastewater surveillance, we develop a quantitative framework that incorporates population-level viral shedding dynamics, measured viral RNA in wastewater, and an epidemic dynamic model. We find that the viral shedding from the recovered population can become higher than the infectious population after the transmission peak, which leads to a decrease in the correlation between wastewater viral RNA and case report data. Furthermore, the inclusion of recovered individuals' viral shedding into the model predicts earlier transmission dynamics and slower decreasing trends in wastewater viral RNA. The prolonged viral shedding also induces a potential delay in the detection of new variants due to the time needed to generate enough new cases for a significant viral signal in an environment dominated by virus shed by the recovered population. This effect is most prominent toward the end of an outbreak and is greatly affected by both the recovered individuals' shedding rate and shedding duration. Our results suggest that the inclusion of viral shedding from non-infectious recovered individuals into wastewater surveillance research is important for precision epidemiology.

The emergence of a virus variant: dynamics of a competition model with cross-immunity time-delay validated by wastewater surveillance data for COVID-19.

We consider the dynamics of a virus spreading through a population that produces a mutant strain with the ability to infect individuals that were infected with the established strain. Temporary cross-immunity is included using a time delay, but is found to be a harmless delay. We provide some sufficient conditions that guarantee local and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the two boundary equilibria when the two strains outcompete one another. It is shown that, due to the immune evasion of the emerging strain, the reproduction number of the emerging strain must be significantly lower than that of the established strain for the local stability of the established-strain-only boundary equilibrium. To analyze the unique coexistence equilibrium we apply a quasi steady-state argument to reduce the full model to a two-dimensional one that exhibits a global asymptotically stable established-strain-only equilibrium or global asymptotically stable coexistence equilibrium. Our results indicate that the basic reproduction numbers of both strains govern the overall dynamics, but in nontrivial ways due to the inclusion of cross-immunity. The model is applied to study the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in the presence of the Alpha variant using wastewater surveillance data from the Deer Island Treatment Plant in Massachusetts, USA.

Polymerase θ inhibition activates the cGAS-STING pathway and cooperates with immune checkpoint blockade in models of BRCA-deficient cancer.

Recently developed inhibitors of polymerase theta (POLθ) have demonstrated synthetic lethality in BRCA-deficient tumor models. To examine the contribution of the immune microenvironment to antitumor efficacy, we characterized the effects of POLθ inhibition in immunocompetent models of BRCA1-deficient triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) or BRCA2-deficient pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We demonstrate that genetic POLQ depletion or pharmacological POLθ inhibition induces both innate and adaptive immune responses in these models. POLθ inhibition resulted in increased micronuclei, cGAS/STING pathway activation, type I interferon gene expression, CD8+ T cell infiltration and activation, local paracrine activation of dendritic cells and upregulation of PD-L1 expression. Depletion of CD8+ T cells compromised the efficacy of POLθ inhibition, whereas antitumor effects were augmented in combination with anti-PD-1 immunotherapy. Collectively, our findings demonstrate that POLθ inhibition induces immune responses in a cGAS/STING-dependent manner and provide a rationale for combining POLθ inhibition with immune checkpoint blockade for the treatment of HR-deficient cancers.

Practical Understanding of Cancer Model Identifiability in Clinical Applications.

Mathematical models are a core component in the foundation of cancer theory and have been developed as clinical tools in precision medicine. Modeling studies for clinical applications often assume an individual's characteristics can be represented as parameters in a model and are used to explain, predict, and optimize treatment outcomes. However, this approach relies on the identifiability of the underlying mathematical models. In this study, we build on the framework of an observing-system simulation experiment to study the identifiability of several models of cancer growth, focusing on the prognostic parameters of each model. Our results demonstrate that the frequency of data collection, the types of data, such as cancer proxy, and the accuracy of measurements all play crucial roles in determining the identifiability of the model. We also found that highly accurate data can allow for reasonably accurate estimates of some parameters, which may be the key to achieving model identifiability in practice. As more complex models required more data for identification, our results support the idea of using models with a clear mechanism that tracks disease progression in clinical settings. For such a model, the subset of model parameters associated with disease progression naturally minimizes the required data for model identifiability.

Highly Sensitive Molecularly Imprinted Polymer-Based Electrochemical Sensors Enhanced by Gold Nanoparticles for Norfloxacin Detection in Aquaculture Water.

The overuse of antibiotics in aquaculture and pharmaceuticals and their subsequent leaking into the environment have been demonstrated to be a potential route for creating antibiotic resistance in bacteria. In order to assess the impact of this problem and take regulatory measures, it is necessary to develop tools that allow for the detection of antibiotics in environmental samples in a routine, low-cost manner. In this study, we integrated gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) into a molecularly imprinted polymer (MIP) membrane to fabricate a new sensor for the detection of norfloxacin in pharmaceuticals and aquaculture samples. The receptor layers were characterized by scanning electron microscopy, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy. The results of these studies demonstrate that the addition of AuNPs to the polymer network enhanced the sensor sensitivity by at least a factor of two. The MIP-AuNPs sensor has a low detection limit (0.15 ng/mL, S/N = 3) with a wide linear range and very high sensitivity. The selectivity of the fabricated sensor was measured in the sample containing other antibiotics (like chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, and levofloxacin). Rapid and precise norfloxacin detection in pharmaceutical compounds and fishpond water samples indicates that the fabricated sensor has the potential to be used for routine screening of aquacultures and pharmaceutical processes.

A simple SEIR-V model to estimate COVID-19 prevalence and predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission using wastewater-based surveillance data.

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has been widely used as a public health tool to monitor SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, epidemiological inference from WBS data remains understudied and limits its application. In this study, we have established a quantitative framework to estimate COVID-19 prevalence and predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission through integrating WBS data into an SEIR-V model. We conceptually divide the individual-level viral shedding course into exposed, infectious, and recovery phases as an analogy to the compartments in a population-level SEIR model. We demonstrated that the effect of temperature on viral losses in the sewer can be straightforwardly incorporated in our framework. Using WBS data from the second wave of the pandemic (Oct 02, 2020-Jan 25, 2021) in the Greater Boston area, we showed that the SEIR-V model successfully recapitulates the temporal dynamics of viral load in wastewater and predicts the true number of cases peaked earlier and higher than the number of reported cases by 6-16 days and 8.3-10.2 folds (R = 0.93). This work showcases a simple yet effective method to bridge WBS and quantitative epidemiological modeling to estimate the prevalence and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the sewershed, which could facilitate the application of wastewater surveillance of infectious diseases for epidemiological inference and inform public health actions.

Revisiting the growth rate hypothesis: Towards a holistic stoichiometric understanding of growth.

The growth rate hypothesis (GRH) posits that variation in organismal stoichiometry (C:P and N:P ratios) is driven by growth-dependent allocation of P to ribosomal RNA. The GRH has found broad but not uniform support in studies across diverse biota and habitats. We synthesise information on how and why the tripartite growth-RNA-P relationship predicted by the GRH may be uncoupled and outline paths for both theoretical and empirical work needed to broaden the working domain of the GRH. We found strong support for growth to RNA (r2  = 0.59) and RNA-P to P (r2  = 0.63) relationships across taxa, but growth to P relationships were relatively weaker (r2  = 0.09). Together, the GRH was supported in ~50% of studies. Mechanisms behind GRH uncoupling were diverse but could generally be attributed to physiological (P accumulation in non-RNA pools, inactive ribosomes, translation elongation rates and protein turnover rates), ecological (limitation by resources other than P), and evolutionary (adaptation to different nutrient supply regimes) causes. These factors should be accounted for in empirical tests of the GRH and formalised mathematically to facilitate a predictive understanding of growth.

High Accuracy Indicators of Androgen Suppression Therapy Failure for Prostate Cancer-A Modeling Study.

Prostate cancer is a serious public health concern in the United States. The primary obstacle to effective long-term management for prostate cancer patients is the eventual development of treatment resistance. Due to the uniquely chaotic nature of the neoplastic genome, it is difficult to determine the evolution of tumor composition over the course of treatment. Hence, a drug is often applied continuously past the point of effectiveness, thereby losing any potential treatment combination with that drug permanently to resistance. If a clinician is aware of the timing of resistance to a particular drug, then they may have a crucial opportunity to adjust the treatment to retain the drug's usefulness in a potential treatment combination or strategy. In this study, we investigate new methods of predicting treatment failure due to treatment resistance using a novel mechanistic model built on an evolutionary interpretation of Droop cell quota theory. We analyze our proposed methods using patient PSA and androgen data from a clinical trial of intermittent treatment with androgen deprivation therapy. Our results produce two indicators of treatment failure. The first indicator, proposed from the evolutionary nature of the cancer population, is calculated using our mathematical model with a predictive accuracy of 87.3% (sensitivity: 96.1%, specificity: 65%). The second indicator, conjectured from the implication of the first indicator, is calculated directly from serum androgen and PSA data with a predictive accuracy of 88.7% (sensitivity: 90.2%, specificity: 85%). Our results demonstrate the potential and feasibility of using an evolutionary tumor dynamics model in combination with the appropriate data to aid in the adaptive management of prostate cancer.

A simple SEIR-V model to estimate COVID-19 prevalence and predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission using wastewater-based surveillance data.

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has been widely used as a public health tool to monitor SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, epidemiological inference from WBS data remains understudied and limits its application. In this study, we have established a quantitative framework to estimate COVID-19 prevalence and predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission through integrating WBS data into an SEIR-V model. We conceptually divide the individual-level viral shedding course into exposed, infectious, and recovery phases as an analogy to the compartments in population-level SEIR model. We demonstrated that the temperature effect on viral losses in the sewer can be straightforwardly incorporated in our framework. Using WBS data from the second wave of the pandemic (Oct 02, 2020 â€" Jan 25, 2021) in the Great Boston area, we showed that the SEIR-V model successfully recapitulates the temporal dynamics of viral load in wastewater and predicts the true number of cases peaked earlier and higher than the number of reported cases by 16 days and 8.6 folds ( R = 0.93), respectively. This work showcases a simple, yet effective method to bridge WBS and quantitative epidemiological modeling to estimate the prevalence and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the sewershed, which could facilitate the application of wastewater surveillance of infectious diseases for epidemiological inference and inform public health actions.

Dynamics and growth rate implications of ribosomes and mRNAs interaction in E. coli.

Understanding how cells grow and adapt under various nutrient conditions is pivotal in the study of biological stoichiometry. Recent studies provide empirical evidence that cells use multiple strategies to maintain an optimal protein production rate under different nutrient conditions. Mathematical models can provide a solid theoretical foundation that can explain experimental observations and generate testable hypotheses to further our understanding of the growth process. In this study, we generalize a modeling framework that centers on the translation process and study its asymptotic behaviors to validate algebraic manipulations involving the steady states. Using experimental results on the growth of E. coli under C-, N-, and P-limited environments, we simulate the expected quantitative measurements to show the feasibility of using the model to explain empirical evidence. Our results support the findings that cells employ multiple strategies to maintain a similar protein production rate across different nutrient limitations. Moreover, we find that the previous study underestimates the significance of certain biological rates, such as the binding rate of ribosomes to mRNA and the transition rate between different ribosomal stages. Furthermore, our simulation shows that the strategies used by cells under C- and P-limitations result in a faster overall growth dynamics than under N-limitation. In conclusion, the general modeling framework provides a valuable platform to study cell growth under different nutrient supply conditions, which also allows straightforward extensions to the coupling of transcription, translation, and energetics to deepen our understanding of the growth process.

Modeling the synergistic properties of drugs in hormonal treatment for prostate cancer.

Prostate cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers in men, with increasing incidence worldwide. This public health concern has inspired considerable effort to study various aspects of prostate cancer treatment using dynamical models, especially in clinical settings. The standard of care for metastatic prostate cancer is hormonal therapy, which reduces the production of androgen that fuels the growth of prostate tumor cells prior to treatment resistance. Existing population models often use patients' prostate-specific antigen levels as a biomarker for model validation and for finding optimal treatment schedules; however, the synergistic effects of drugs used in hormonal therapy have not been well-examined. This paper describes the first mathematical model that explicitly incorporates the synergistic effects of two drugs used to inhibit androgen production in hormonal therapy. The drugs are cyproterone acetate, representing the drug family of anti-androgens that affect luteinizing hormones, and leuprolide acetate, representing the drug family of gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogs. By fitting the model to clinical data, we show that the proposed model can capture the dynamics of serum androgen levels during intermittent hormonal therapy better than previously published models. Our results highlight the importance of considering the synergistic effects of drugs in cancer treatment, thus suggesting that the dynamics of the drugs should be taken into account in optimal treatment studies, particularly for adaptive therapy. Otherwise, an unrealistic treatment schedule may be prescribed and render the treatment less effective. Furthermore, the drug dynamics allow our model to explain the delay in the relapse of androgen the moment a patient is taken off treatment, which supports that this delay is due to the residual effects of the drugs.

Optimized RNA-targeting CRISPR/Cas13d technology outperforms shRNA in identifying functional circRNAs.

Short hairpin RNAs (shRNAs) are used to deplete circRNAs by targeting back-splicing junction (BSJ) sites. However, frequent discrepancies exist between shRNA-mediated circRNA knockdown and the corresponding biological effect, querying their robustness. By leveraging CRISPR/Cas13d tool and optimizing the strategy for designing single-guide RNAs against circRNA BSJ sites, we markedly enhance specificity of circRNA silencing. This specificity is validated in parallel screenings by shRNA and CRISPR/Cas13d libraries. Using a CRISPR/Cas13d screening library targeting > 2500 human hepatocellular carcinoma-related circRNAs, we subsequently identify a subset of sorafenib-resistant circRNAs. Thus, CRISPR/Cas13d represents an effective approach for high-throughput study of functional circRNAs.